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EWN 16 day weatherforecast

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Salo, Sibeliuspuisto, Varsinais-Suomi

    Table
    Graphs
    Maps
    Accuracy
    Compare
    Forecastgraph
    Compare forecastmodels
    EWN puts the forecast-models in a real test by monitoring their accuracy also outside their "home-area" which usually is the country of the issuing meteorologic institute. The accuracy are monitored for ca 900 locations north of the Alps and are calculated by comparing the forecast with the observed temperature every 3 hours at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC. The used forecast for the next day are generated at ca 18 UTC. Theese results are then used for calculating the EWN forecast.
    Models
    - EWN: EWN's own forecast
    - WRFDA: WRF runned by EWN
    - DWD: ICON, DWD, Germany
    - MF-Arpege: ARPEGE, Meteo France
    - MF-Arome: AROME, Meteo France
    - KNMI: Hirlam, KNMI, The Netherlands
    - FMI: Hirlam, FMI, Finland
    - YR: XML-files (AROME-MetCoOp, Hirlam, ECMWF), MET Norway (yr.no)
    - GFS: GFS, NCEP, USA
    - CMC: CMC Ensemble, CMC, Canada
    - WXSIM: WXSIM-software runned by private weatherstations (data not available for all locations)

    Accuracy for Salo, Sibeliuspuisto

     
    EWN
    FMI
    YR
    --
    DWD
    MF
    KNMI
    GFS
    CMC
    WXSIM
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error

    Model accuracy

    The average total accuracy for each forecast-model.
     
    EWN
    FMI
    YR
    --
    DWD
    MF
    KNMI
    GFS
    CMC
    WXSIM
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    Close observations
      mm
      30+
      25-30
      20-25
      15-20
      10-15
      6-10
      4-6
      2-4
      1-2
      0.5-1
      0.2-0.5
      0.1-0.2
      Snowfall
      Sleet
      Hail
      Freezing
      Thunder
      mm
      50
      30
      22
      14
      9
      7
      5
      4
      3
      2
      1
      0.6
      0.2
      35°
      30°
      25°
      20°
      15°
      10°
      -5°
      -10°
      -15°
      -20°
      -25°
      -30°
      -35°
      m/s
      33+
      29
      25
      21
      17
      14
      11
      8
      5
      3
      0
      m/s
      100
      90
      80
      70
      60
      50
      40
      30
      m/s
      50+
      45
      40
      35
      30
      25
      20
      15
      10
      5
      0
      J/kg
      2600
      2400
      2200
      2000
      1800
      1600
      1400
      1200
      1000
      800
      600
      400
      200
      dBZ
      70
      65
      60
      55
      50
      45
      40
      35
      30
      25
      20
      15
      10
      5
      K
      -1
      -2
      -3
      -4
      -5
      -6
      -7
      -8
      -9
      m²/s²
      950
      900
      850
      800
      750
      700
      650
      600
      550
      500
      450
      400
      350
      300
      250
      200
      150
      100
      m/s
      46
      44
      42
      40
      38
      36
      34
      32
      30
      28
      26
      24
      22
      20
      16
      12
      8
      4
      m/s
      30
      28
      26
      24
      22
      20
      18
      16
      14
      12
      10
      8
      6
      4
      2
      3.0
      2.8
      2.6
      2.4
      2.2
      2.0
      1.8
      1.6
      1.4
      1.2
      1.0
      0.8
      0.6
      0.4
      0.2
      15
      14
      13
      12
      11
      10
      9
      8
      7
      6
      5
      4
      3
      2
      1
      %
      90
      80
      70
      60
      50
      40
      30
      20
      10
      cm
      200+
      175-200
      150-175
      125-150
      100-125
      80-100
      60-80
      40-60
      20-40
      10-20
      0-10
      Snowfall
      Sleet
      Rain
      mm
      >120
      110
      100
      90
      80
      70
      60
      50
      40
      30
      20
      10
      hPa
      960
      880
      800
      720
      640
      560
      gpdm
      584
      568
      552
      536
      520
      504
      488
      Extremely severe Severe weather Lightning probability
      15% 15% 5% 50% 15%
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